Wed, Mar 30, 2016·Honda Center, Anaheim
Calgary Flames 3, Anaheim Ducks 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 07 | 311 | 08 | 326 |
| ANA | 38 | 413 | 16 | 827 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:57ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 4:00ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Ryan Kesler, Andrew Cogliano · Backhand, 0.27 xG0–2
- P1 6:51ANABrandon PirriAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Cam Fowler · Slap, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 0:21ANAJamie McGinnGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Clayton Stoner · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–4
- P2 5:30ANAShea TheodoreAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Ryan Kesler · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–5
- P2 13:47CGYHunter ShinkarukPPAssists: Mark Giordano, Sean Monahan · Slap, 0.08 xG1–5
- P2 14:06ANANate ThompsonAssists: Ryan Garbutt, Mike Santorelli · Slap, 0.11 xG1–6
- P2 15:25CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Joe Colborne, Deryk Engelland · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–6
- P2 18:47ANARyan KeslerPPAssists: Chris Stewart · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–7
- P2 19:46CGYTJ BrodieAssists: Joe Colborne, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–7
- P3 13:08ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Jamie McGinn, Ryan Kesler · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–8
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:41ANARyan Kesler: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:33CGYMark Giordano: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:48ANAShea Theodore: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:17CGYMikael Backlund: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:17ANARyan Garbutt: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:02CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:43ANAKorbinian Holzer: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:33CGYLance Bouma: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:33CGYLance Bouma: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:42ANANate Thompson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:42CGYBrandon Bollig: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Stajan – Shinkaruk – Jooris2:24
xG 0.02–0.03 (40%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Stajan – Bollig – Jooris7:16
xG 0.12–0.19 (38%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Backlund – Bouma – Poirier10:04
xG 0.19–0.66 (23%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Grant – Shinkaruk – Monahan9:31
xG 0.15–0.75 (16%)attempts 5–9goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Hamilton13:05
xG 0.57–0.46 (56%)attempts 17–7goals 1–3
- Kulak – Nakladal15:16
xG 0.18–0.69 (21%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Engelland – Giordano13:14
xG 0.34–1.13 (23%)attempts 12–11goals 1–2
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – McGinn10:36
xG 1.23–0.15 (89%)attempts 14–6goals 2–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg8:53
xG 0.62–0.32 (66%)attempts 6–10goals 2–0
- Horcoff – Stewart – Pirri12:20
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
- Thompson – Santorelli – Garbutt8:16
xG 0.31–0.22 (58%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Vatanen14:56
xG 1.13–0.17 (87%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Holzer – Lindholm10:36
xG 0.37–0.17 (68%)attempts 6–15goals 1–1
- Fowler – Theodore11:45
xG 0.51–0.44 (54%)attempts 7–13goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).