Thu, Mar 31, 2016·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Nashville Predators 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 111 | 16 | 07 | 224 |
| PIT | 114 | 315 | 112 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:06PITPhil KesselAssists: Justin Schultz, Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 19:00NSHRyan JohansenAssists: James Neal, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 2:29PITPhil KesselAssists: Trevor Daley, Oskar Sundqvist · Snap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 10:57PITKris LetangPPGWGAssists: Chris Kunitz, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 14:24NSHJames NealAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Johansen · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 18:24PITPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Trevor Daley, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.22 xG2–4
- P3 15:49PITNick BoninoAssists: Carl Hagelin, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:25PITCarl Hagelin: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:10NSHMattias Ekholm: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:24NSHPetter Granberg: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:17PITConor Sheary: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:35NSHViktor Arvidsson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 0:26PITChris Kunitz: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:26PITChris Kunitz: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:26NSHCalle Jarnkrok: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:35NSHColton Sissons: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:47PITSidney Crosby: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Smith – Forsberg9:30
xG 0.31–0.21 (60%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Watson – Sissons7:01
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Neal – Jarnkrok – Johansen10:07
xG 0.18–0.40 (31%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Fisher – Salomaki – Arvidsson7:53
xG 0.11–0.43 (20%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi17:37
xG 0.61–0.29 (68%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Elliott – Ekholm2:40
xG 0.07–0.13 (34%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Jackman – Elliott8:48
xG 0.23–0.56 (29%)attempts 5–14goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Bonino – Hagelin11:01
xG 0.59–0.35 (63%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Kunitz – Hornqvist – Sundqvist2:02
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist9:32
xG 0.27–0.14 (66%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Kuhnhackl10:30
xG 0.23–0.12 (66%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Letang14:43
xG 0.80–0.46 (64%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Cole – Schultz11:08
xG 0.37–0.15 (72%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Letang – Cole3:37
xG 0.04–0.07 (38%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).