Thu, Mar 31, 2016·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New York Rangers 3, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 04 | 313 | 010 | 327 |
| CAR | 113 | 14 | 211 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:05CARPatrick BrownAssists: Jeff Skinner, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 1:36NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Derek Stepan, Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 5:03NYRRick NashAssists: J.T. Miller, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 13:27CARJustin FaulkAssists: Sergey Tolchinsky, Ryan Murphy · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 17:18NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Derek Stepan, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 4:22CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Ryan Murphy, Patrick Brown · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–3
- P3 9:06CARVictor RaskPPGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:26NYRDominic Moore: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:03CARSergey Tolchinsky: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:01CARRyan Murphy: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 16:54CARRon Hainsey: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:12NYRJ.T. Miller: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ryan won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Kreider – Zuccarello8:54
xG 1.09–0.10 (91%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Nash – Brassard – Miller7:27
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Moore – Glass – Stalberg8:29
xG 0.33–0.35 (48%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Stepan – Zuccarello – Miller4:25
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh2:34
xG 0.36–0.09 (80%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Boyle – Yandle3:30
xG 0.25–0.06 (80%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Klein – McDonagh14:00
xG 0.76–0.67 (53%)attempts 12–10goals 0–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTolchinsky – Brown – Ryan6:37
xG 0.25–0.14 (65%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Skinner – Rask – Brown2:52
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Nordstrom – Lindholm12:45
xG 0.34–0.36 (49%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- McClement – Gerbe – Malone5:52
xG 0.21–0.26 (45%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Murphy14:44
xG 0.80–0.69 (54%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Faulk – Slavin16:49
xG 0.60–0.79 (43%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
- Pesce – Hanifin15:43
xG 0.46–0.73 (39%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).