Thu, Mar 31, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
New Jersey Devils 2, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 17 | 03 | 115 | 225 |
| FLA | 013 | 118 | 29 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:30NJDMike SisloPPAssists: Devante Smith-Pelly, Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 7:57FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Shawn Thornton, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 3:13FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 17:52FLAAleksander BarkovGWGAssists: Jaromir Jagr · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 19:54NJDBlake PietilaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:42FLABrian Campbell: Interference2 min
- P1 4:06NJDAdam Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:45NJDStephen Gionta: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:50FLAJiri Hudler: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 17:06NJDDamon Severson: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:02NJDJoseph Blandisi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:30FLADmitry Kulikov: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:13FLAQuinton Howden: Objects on ice2 min
- P3 4:49FLASteven Kampfer: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:52FLAQuinton Howden: Objects on ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKennedy – Gionta – Farnham4:06
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Henrique – Smith-Pelly – Blandisi4:13
xG 0.08–0.10 (46%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Sislo – Blandisi – Kalinin3:31
xG 0.02–0.05 (26%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Sislo – Pietila – Kalinin4:53
xG 0.11–0.15 (44%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Greene – Larsson16:33
xG 0.38–0.55 (41%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
- Warsofsky – Moore9:33
xG 0.22–0.49 (31%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Helgeson – Severson9:32
xG 0.12–0.46 (21%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Huberdeau – Barkov11:43
xG 0.51–0.27 (66%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Howden6:35
xG 0.32–0.09 (78%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Bjugstad7:59
xG 0.15–0.19 (44%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Hudler – Purcell – Grimaldi7:35
xG 0.12–0.20 (37%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Ekblad11:48
xG 0.58–0.26 (69%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Kampfer – Kulikov12:15
xG 0.57–0.32 (64%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Kindl – Gudbranson12:02
xG 0.45–0.20 (69%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).