Fri, Apr 1, 2016·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Minnesota Wild 2, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 05 | 112 | 15 | 222 |
| DET | 111 | 18 | 110 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:52DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Henrik Zetterberg · Deflected, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 2:32DETTomas TatarAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Riley Sheahan · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 16:42MINJonas BrodinAssists: Ryan Suter, Zach Parise · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 2:08DETRiley SheahanGWGAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Jonathan Ericsson · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–3
- P3 9:43MINMikael GranlundAssists: Ryan Suter, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:08DETKyle Quincey: Holding2 min
- P1 9:36MINJarret Stoll: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:04MINJason Zucker: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:05MINMathew Dumba: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:05DETJustin Abdelkader: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Granlund9:59
xG 0.42–0.12 (78%)attempts 12–1goals 2–0
- Stoll – Zucker – Fontaine2:47
xG 0.15–0.05 (74%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Pominville – Haula – Niederreiter13:10
xG 0.20–0.26 (43%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle5:17
xG 0.12–0.25 (32%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin20:13
xG 0.71–0.60 (54%)attempts 22–12goals 2–0
- Prosser – Reilly7:41
xG 0.19–0.70 (22%)attempts 4–11goals 0–2
- Scandella – Dumba17:19
xG 0.28–1.01 (22%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Tatar – Sheahan8:41
xG 0.99–0.19 (84%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
- Richards – Datsyuk – Helm10:59
xG 0.46–0.14 (76%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Glendening3:38
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Glendening – Athanasiou – Mantha4:24
xG 0.10–0.28 (27%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – Green7:47
xG 1.13–0.03 (97%)attempts 12–1goals 2–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser16:59
xG 0.54–0.29 (65%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Green – DeKeyser2:26
xG 0.40–0.23 (64%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).