Fri, Apr 1, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Boston Bruins 6, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 28 | 315 | 15 | 628 |
| STL | 18 | 18 | 314 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:04STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Jori Lehtera, Vladimir Tarasenko · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 14:45BOSLoui ErikssonAssists: John-Michael Liles, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 16:35BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Matt Beleskey, John-Michael Liles · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–1
- P2 5:39STLPaul StastnyAssists: Magnus Paajarvi · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 9:51BOSMatt BeleskeyAssists: David Krejci · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 15:27BOSFrank VatranoAssists: Lee Stempniak, Ryan Spooner · Snap, 0.16 xG4–2
- P2 18:14BOSDavid KrejciPPAssists: Torey Krug, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–2
- P3 3:56STLRobert BortuzzoAssists: David Backes, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–3
- P3 7:38STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: Alexander Steen, Troy Brouwer · Backhand, 0.18 xG5–4
- P3 16:36BOSPatrice BergeronPPGWGAssists: Torey Krug, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.38 xG6–4
- P3 19:39STLKevin ShattenkirkAssists: David Backes, Troy Brouwer · Backhand, 0.07 xG6–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:46STLPatrik Berglund: Interference2 min
- P1 8:10BOSSeth Griffith: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:53BOSMatt Beleskey: Interference2 min
- P2 2:45STLAlexander Steen: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:58STLRyan Reaves: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 18:38BOSLee Stempniak: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 8:51BOSRyan Spooner: Holding2 min
- P3 15:55STLPetteri Lindbohm: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:49BOSAdam McQuaid: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Steen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Bergeron – Marchand11:09
xG 0.46–0.15 (75%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Ferraro – Griffith – Acciari5:46
xG 0.32–0.13 (71%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Krejci – Beleskey – Pastrnak10:59
xG 0.65–0.48 (57%)attempts 12–8goals 2–1
- Stempniak – Vatrano – Acciari2:47
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Morrow3:00
xG 0.31–0.02 (95%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Krug10:14
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Liles – Morrow3:12
xG 0.32–0.20 (61%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Brouwer – Stastny4:16
xG 0.30–0.00 (99%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Brouwer – Stastny – Paajarvi6:42
xG 0.22–0.12 (65%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Steen – Backes – Berglund8:11
xG 0.42–0.46 (48%)attempts 7–9goals 0–2
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves4:39
xG 0.21–0.31 (40%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pietrangelo – Edmundson13:58
xG 0.75–0.71 (51%)attempts 13–13goals 1–2
- Shattenkirk – Parayko15:27
xG 0.37–0.50 (42%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Bortuzzo – Lindbohm11:27
xG 0.38–0.54 (41%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).