Fri, Apr 1, 2016·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Winnipeg Jets 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 29 | 17 | 18 | 13 | 527 |
| WPG | 113 | 112 | 27 | 00 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:36WPGNic PetanAssists: Joel Armia, Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–1
- P1 14:39CHIArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 17:00CHIBrandon MashinterAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Erik Gustafsson · Deflected, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 12:08WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Dustin Byfuglien · Backhand, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 17:22CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Artemi Panarin, Erik Gustafsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 5:33WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 11:39WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Mark Scheifele · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 15:15CHIArtemi PanarinAssists: Marcus Kruger, Brent Seabrook · Snap, 0.18 xG4–4
- OT 1:02CHIBrent SeabrookGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:54CHIBrent Seabrook: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:48WPGAdam Lowry: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:46CHITrevor van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:42CHIBrent Seabrook: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 2:05WPGNic Petan: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:27WPGDustin Byfuglien: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestWeise – Mashinter – Teravainen8:11
xG 0.65–0.09 (88%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Fleischmann – Desjardins – Kruger2:06
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Ladd – Toews8:48
xG 0.23–0.34 (41%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin11:00
xG 0.14–0.29 (32%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Hjalmarsson2:56
xG 0.22–0.02 (92%)attempts 3–3goals 2–0
- Rozsival – Gustafsson8:44
xG 0.31–0.12 (73%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Seabrook – Svedberg10:56
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers13:00
xG 0.73–0.30 (71%)attempts 20–13goals 2–1
- Armia – Copp – Petan6:56
xG 0.51–0.12 (81%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Halischuk – Lowry8:50
xG 0.02–0.13 (13%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Stafford – Burmistrov – Dano14:20
xG 0.39–0.55 (41%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPostma – Melchiori10:24
xG 0.71–0.52 (57%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Byfuglien – Chiarot19:03
xG 0.54–0.49 (52%)attempts 24–11goals 2–2
- Stuart – Trouba15:16
xG 0.50–0.46 (52%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).