Fri, Apr 1, 2016·Pepsi Center, Denver
Washington Capitals 4, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 015 | 315 | 117 | 447 |
| COL | 07 | 16 | 16 | 219 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:50WSHJay BeagleUnassisted · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 12:57WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Snap, 0.49 xG2–0
- P2 14:16WSHJason ChimeraGWGAssists: Mike Richards, John Carlson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–0
- P2 19:19COLJarome IginlaPPAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Carl Soderberg · Snap, 0.24 xG3–1
- P3 14:21COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Carl Soderberg, Blake Comeau · Snap, 0.39 xG3–2
- P3 19:50WSHT.J. OshieENAssists: Daniel Winnik, Jay Beagle · Backhand, 0.78 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:17WSHJustin Williams: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:28WSHJay Beagle: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:21COLBlake Comeau: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:42COLCody McLeod: Charging2 min
- P2 18:59WSHMatt Niskanen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:36COLChris Bigras: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beagle won the faceoff against Mitchell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Johansson10:40
xG 0.74–0.09 (89%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Richards – Winnik – Galiev7:10
xG 0.76–0.23 (77%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Williams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky9:18
xG 1.01–0.87 (54%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Chimera – Beagle – Wilson9:35
xG 0.21–0.23 (47%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Orlov9:08
xG 0.99–0.03 (97%)attempts 17–2goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Alzner17:37
xG 1.41–0.82 (63%)attempts 27–12goals 0–1
- Carlson – Schmidt9:36
xG 0.37–0.08 (82%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Soderberg – Landeskog12:25
xG 1.10–1.01 (52%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- McLeod – Agozzino – Martinsen4:48
xG 0.01–0.16 (6%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Boedker – Duchene – Grigorenko8:52
xG 0.24–0.48 (33%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Iginla – Mitchell – Matthias7:57
xG 0.27–0.52 (34%)attempts 3–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Holden3:02
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Holden3:23
xG 0.19–0.07 (72%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Barrie2:33
xG 0.17–0.12 (59%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).