Sat, Apr 2, 2016·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, New York Islanders 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 114 | 210 | 29 | 533 |
| NYI | 07 | 09 | 08 | 024 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:41PITOskar SundqvistSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 8:09PITPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 15:30PITMatt CullenAssists: Tom Kuhnhackl, Eric Fehr · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–0
- P3 10:40PITPhil KesselPPAssists: Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–0
- P3 15:01PITTom KuhnhacklAssists: Matt Cullen, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–0
Penalties (18)
- P1 5:33PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:21PITIan Cole: Interference2 min
- P1 17:05NYIMatt Martin: Boarding2 min
- P1 17:05PITIan Cole: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:09PITIan Cole: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:09NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:09NYINikolay Kulemin: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:09PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:09NYINikolay Kulemin: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:05PITChris Kunitz: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:04NYIThomas Hickey: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:17PITTrevor Daley: Concealing puck2 min
- P3 9:19NYIMarek Zidlicky: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:26NYICal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:26PITBen Lovejoy: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:26PITBrian Dumoulin: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:26PITEric Fehr: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:26NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Fehr – Kuhnhackl10:34
xG 0.65–0.17 (79%)attempts 7–8goals 2–0
- Kessel – Bonino – Hagelin9:04
xG 0.47–0.21 (69%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist11:44
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Bennett – Sundqvist – Sheary6:30
xG 0.17–0.13 (55%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Dumoulin12:19
xG 0.56–0.31 (64%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Daley – Letang15:54
xG 0.50–0.34 (60%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Cole – Schultz8:37
xG 0.28–0.15 (65%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Strome9:45
xG 0.25–0.09 (74%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Lee – Nelson – Prince8:35
xG 0.22–0.32 (41%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Kulemin11:58
xG 0.27–0.49 (36%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:29
xG 0.07–0.60 (10%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Hickey10:13
xG 0.25–0.13 (66%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy16:12
xG 0.34–0.60 (36%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Strait – de Haan15:40
xG 0.24–1.04 (18%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).