Sat, Apr 2, 2016·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Dallas Stars 3, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 118 | 012 | 29 | 339 |
| LAK | 18 | 18 | 010 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:37LAKTanner PearsonAssists: Luke Schenn, Rob Scuderi · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 19:57DALJamie BennPPAssists: Patrick Sharp, Jason Spezza · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 9:50LAKJeff CarterAssists: Tyler Toffoli · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 5:57DALPatrick EavesUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 15:02DALJordie BennGWGAssists: Patrik Nemeth, Colton Sceviour · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:24LAKKyle Clifford: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:31LAKJake Muzzin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 8:46DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:46LAKAndy Andreoff: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:14DALPatrick Sharp: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:31LAKDrew Doughty: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:45DALPatrick Sharp: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Janmark – Nichushkin8:43
xG 0.54–0.22 (71%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Roussel – Faksa11:58
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Eaves – Sceviour6:52
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Sharp – Benn – Eakin13:37
xG 0.12–0.28 (30%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Nemeth13:28
xG 0.56–0.25 (69%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Oduya – Johns16:43
xG 0.52–0.42 (55%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Klingberg16:29
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 19–17goals 1–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – Pearson10:32
xG 0.25–0.15 (63%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Versteeg – Clifford – Andreoff6:23
xG 0.23–0.22 (50%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Lewis – King8:30
xG 0.26–0.31 (46%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Carter – Lucic – Toffoli13:00
xG 0.28–0.54 (34%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Scuderi – Martinez5:49
xG 0.12–0.08 (61%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty3:35
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Schenn6:27
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).