Sat, Apr 2, 2016·Amalie Arena, Tampa
New Jersey Devils 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 09 | 112 | 05 | 126 |
| TBL | 010 | 19 | 217 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:03TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Ondrej Palat, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 19:32NJDAdam HenriquePPAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 11:32TBLBrian BoylePPGWGAssists: Nikita Nesterov, Nikita Kucherov · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–2
- P3 19:27TBLNikita KucherovENAssists: Victor Hedman, Cedric Paquette · Wrist, 0.75 xG1–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 14:17NJDTyler Kennedy: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:34TBLMatt Carle: Interference2 min
- P1 18:07NJDJoseph Blandisi: Interference2 min
- P2 2:01TBLBraydon Coburn: Holding2 min
- P2 4:09TBLJason Garrison: Holding2 min
- P2 10:07NJDJoseph Blandisi: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:53TBLAndrej Sustr: Holding2 min
- P2 14:44TBLBrian Boyle: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:44NJDDevante Smith-Pelly: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:08NJDAdam Larsson: Interference2 min
- P2 18:15TBLBraydon Coburn: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:51NJDDavid Schlemko: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:47NJDSergey Kalinin: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:27NJDTyler Kennedy: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 13:42TBLMatt Carle: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJosefson – Pietila – Blandisi3:15
xG 0.12–0.03 (81%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Josefson – Sislo – Kalinin3:55
xG 0.06–0.04 (61%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Josefson – Sislo – Pietila2:01
xG 0.08–0.11 (42%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Gionta – Pietila – Blandisi3:13
xG 0.02–0.07 (19%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Severson2:21
xG 0.09–0.02 (81%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Moore – Mozik7:54
xG 0.26–0.27 (50%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Mozik2:07
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Namestnikov – Brown4:41
xG 0.32–0.12 (72%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov6:25
xG 0.24–0.11 (68%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Namestnikov – Brown – Paquette3:18
xG 0.11–0.02 (86%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Boyle – Blunden – Condra6:23
xG 0.11–0.02 (86%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Nesterov6:26
xG 0.28–0.05 (85%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Garrison – Sustr9:34
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Carle – Hedman9:43
xG 0.29–0.22 (57%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).