Sat, Apr 2, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Montréal Canadiens 3, Florida Panthers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 110 | 210 | 08 | 328 |
| FLA | 07 | 215 | 217 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:14MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Joel Hanley, Max Pacioretty · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 10:10MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: Paul Byron, Darren Dietz · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 11:19MTLTorrey MitchellAssists: Lars Eller, Tomas Plekanec · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 13:13FLAJaromir JagrAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau · Snap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 19:26FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–2
- P3 12:17FLAJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 19:31FLAAleksander BarkovGWGAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Brian Campbell · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 0:34FLAJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:13MTLAlexei Emelin: Delaying game2 min
- P3 11:00MTLTomas Plekanec: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Galchenyuk won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Mitchell – Eller12:55
xG 0.54–0.18 (75%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Gallagher – Galchenyuk15:12
xG 0.59–0.68 (47%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
- Danault – McCarron – Carr9:01
xG 0.20–0.41 (32%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Byron – Andrighetto10:21
xG 0.16–0.62 (21%)attempts 5–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Dietz3:41
xG 0.28–0.08 (77%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Emelin – Lernout5:47
xG 0.30–0.17 (64%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Dietz – Hanley8:16
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Huberdeau – Barkov12:08
xG 0.70–0.25 (74%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Jokinen – Smith – Bjugstad12:22
xG 0.63–0.24 (73%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Hudler – Purcell – Grimaldi9:56
xG 0.30–0.32 (48%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Howden9:13
xG 0.18–0.25 (41%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Ekblad18:28
xG 1.14–0.57 (67%)attempts 19–13goals 3–2
- Kindl – Kampfer4:39
xG 0.30–0.05 (84%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Kampfer – Kulikov7:50
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).