Sat, Apr 2, 2016·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Calgary Flames 5, Edmonton Oilers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 111 | 110 | 314 | 535 |
| EDM | 09 | 011 | 08 | 028 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:51CGYMikael BacklundSHGWGAssists: Josh Jooris, Deryk Engelland · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 15:13CGYJoe ColborneAssists: Mikael Backlund, Jyrki Jokipakka · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–0
- P3 3:11CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Micheal Ferland, Sean Monahan · Tip-in, 0.31 xG3–0
- P3 7:21CGYJohnny GaudreauPPAssists: Joe Colborne, Sean Monahan · Backhand, 0.22 xG4–0
- P3 12:35CGYMikael BacklundUnassisted · Backhand, 0.24 xG5–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:19CGYTJ Brodie: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:35EDMNail Yakupov: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:46EDMPatrick Maroon: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:26EDMDarnell Nurse: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:55EDMMatt Hendricks: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:31EDMGriffin Reinhart: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:35CGYSam Bennett: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:36EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:17CGYBrandon Bollig: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:17EDMMatt Hendricks: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFerland – Gaudreau – Monahan4:44
xG 1.06–0.18 (85%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Shinkaruk – Jooris – Bennett4:35
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Backlund – Colborne – Bouma8:15
xG 0.47–0.53 (47%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Ferland – Jooris – Bennett2:39
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Giordano9:02
xG 1.04–0.62 (63%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Brodie – Hamilton11:19
xG 0.60–0.29 (68%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Jokipakka – Nakladal11:10
xG 0.48–0.39 (55%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHall – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl7:15
xG 0.51–0.10 (83%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Hall – Yakupov – Draisaitl4:04
xG 0.46–0.11 (81%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Letestu – Nugent-Hopkins3:29
xG 0.21–0.03 (88%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Lander – Kassian6:17
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Fayne13:53
xG 0.77–0.17 (82%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Pardy – Nurse13:25
xG 0.47–0.39 (55%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Reinhart – Oesterle13:21
xG 0.70–1.60 (31%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).