Sun, Apr 3, 2016·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Minnesota Wild 1, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 07 | 015 | 17 | 129 |
| WPG | 113 | 113 | 38 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:55WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Alexander Burmistrov · Slap, 0.28 xG0–1
- P2 12:37WPGChris ThorburnGWGAssists: Matt Halischuk · Snap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 7:37MINMikael GranlundAssists: Mikko Koivu, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 9:03WPGAndrew CoppAssists: Nic Petan, Ben Chiarot · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 12:55WPGDrew StaffordPPAssists: Jacob Trouba, Marko Dano · Backhand, 0.31 xG1–4
- P3 17:16WPGBlake WheelerENAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.58 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:57MINJordan Schroeder: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:43WPGMark Scheifele: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:05MINNino Niederreiter: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:23MINJason Zucker: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:23WPGMark Stuart: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:39WPGBlake Wheeler: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 11:49MINRyan Suter: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Granlund6:16
xG 0.56–0.12 (82%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Pominville – Haula – Niederreiter10:51
xG 0.32–0.08 (81%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle7:15
xG 0.30–0.20 (61%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Schroeder – Zucker – Granlund3:59
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Prosser – Reilly6:08
xG 0.12–0.09 (57%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Scandella – Prosser3:21
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Scandella – Brodin2:40
xG 0.02–0.02 (53%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Copp – Petan7:41
xG 0.68–0.20 (77%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers12:40
xG 0.53–0.50 (51%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Halischuk – Lowry11:02
xG 0.32–0.30 (52%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Stafford – Burmistrov – Dano10:08
xG 0.17–0.48 (26%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPostma – Melchiori10:10
xG 0.55–0.40 (58%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Stuart – Trouba16:53
xG 0.26–0.38 (40%)attempts 10–21goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Chiarot17:05
xG 0.59–0.81 (42%)attempts 15–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).