Mon, Apr 4, 2016·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 010 | 212 | 012 | 234 |
| NYI | 19 | 310 | 117 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:18NYIRyan PulockAssists: Kyle Okposo, John Tavares · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 2:08TBLAlex KillornAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Matt Carle · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 11:00NYIMatt MartinAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 15:23NYIBrock NelsonGWGAssists: Nikolay Kulemin · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 16:15NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Frans Nielsen, Kyle Okposo · Slap, 0.05 xG1–4
- P2 19:53TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Matt Carle, Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 4:28NYIJohnny BoychukAssists: John Tavares · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:38NYIMarek Zidlicky: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:21NYIKyle Okposo: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:21TBLNikita Nesterov: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:53NYIBrock Nelson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:43NYIRyan Pulock: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:43TBLCedric Paquette: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:50TBLTyler Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:53TBLJT Brown: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:10NYIAnders Lee: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:17NYIThomas Hickey: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Blunden – Condra6:22
xG 0.36–0.19 (66%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov11:18
xG 0.34–0.49 (41%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Filppula – Callahan – Paquette9:42
xG 0.30–0.51 (37%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Killorn – Namestnikov – Brown9:54
xG 0.26–0.52 (33%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Coburn – Sustr3:23
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Carle – Hedman12:28
xG 0.46–0.53 (47%)attempts 16–6goals 1–1
- Garrison – Sustr12:01
xG 0.24–0.32 (42%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Tavares10:46
xG 0.66–0.02 (97%)attempts 16–2goals 2–0
- Lee – Prince – Strome7:45
xG 0.55–0.27 (67%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Kulemin – Bailey – Nelson7:39
xG 0.38–0.21 (64%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas6:42
xG 0.21–0.31 (40%)attempts 3–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Pulock6:17
xG 0.68–0.21 (76%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Leddy12:38
xG 0.59–0.32 (65%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Leddy – Pulock4:39
xG 0.31–0.10 (76%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).