Mon, Apr 4, 2016·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New York Rangers 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 113 | 212 | 15 | 430 |
| CBJ | 07 | 111 | 111 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:17NYRChris KreiderAssists: Derek Stepan, Henrik Lundqvist · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 5:28NYRDan BoyleUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 14:41CBJNick FolignoAssists: David Savard, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 18:14NYRMats ZuccarelloGWGAssists: Chris Kreider · Snap, 0.21 xG3–1
- P3 10:45CBJNick FolignoAssists: Seth Jones, Jared Boll · Snap, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 18:49NYRDerek StepanENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.60 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:32CBJJared Boll: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:00NYRDerek Stepan: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:24NYRMarc Staal: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:16NYRRick Nash: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:57NYRMats Zuccarello: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Kreider – Zuccarello7:47
xG 0.75–0.34 (69%)attempts 7–8goals 2–0
- Staal – Hayes – Fast10:49
xG 0.30–0.11 (74%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Moore – Glass – Stalberg8:51
xG 0.70–0.57 (55%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Nash – Brassard – Miller12:16
xG 0.52–0.40 (57%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Staal9:05
xG 0.36–0.08 (81%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Yandle – Girardi10:44
xG 0.60–0.37 (62%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Klein – McDonagh4:00
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Saad – Wennberg2:40
xG 0.45–0.10 (81%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Campbell – Boll – Foligno5:47
xG 0.38–0.27 (59%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Saad – Wennberg – Milano8:22
xG 0.28–0.18 (60%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Wennberg – Milano2:16
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Jones8:14
xG 0.48–0.14 (77%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Savard – Kukan7:49
xG 0.47–0.27 (64%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Savard – Jones2:52
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).