Tue, Apr 5, 2016·Prudential Center, Newark
Buffalo Sabres 3, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 05 | 19 | 24 | 318 |
| NJD | 05 | 06 | 18 | 119 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:12BUFRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Rasmus Ristolainen · Slap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P3 0:12BUFJohan LarssonGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P3 14:31NJDJacob JosefsonPPAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Kyle Palmieri · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 19:12BUFJack EichelENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.75 xG3–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:11BUFCasey Nelson: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:05BUFMark Pysyk: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:51NJDKyle Palmieri: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:36NJDBlake Pietila: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:09BUFMark Pysyk: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:26NJDReid Boucher: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:39BUFCasey Nelson: Interference2 min
- P3 10:36NJDTravis Zajac: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:20BUFDavid Legwand: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 16:16BUFJohan Larsson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Girgensons – Fasching9:32
xG 0.29–0.19 (60%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Foligno – Deslauriers – Girgensons2:28
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Legwand – Moulson – O'Reilly3:45
xG 0.03–0.10 (22%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Reinhart – Eichel8:02
xG 0.14–0.31 (31%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – McCabe15:28
xG 0.33–0.18 (65%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Gorges – Ristolainen13:22
xG 0.17–0.35 (33%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Nelson8:04
xG 0.11–0.31 (26%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Kennedy – Henrique – Smith-Pelly6:01
xG 0.15–0.10 (60%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Elias – Josefson – Sislo6:35
xG 0.08–0.05 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Gionta – Pietila – Kalinin7:24
xG 0.10–0.13 (43%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Boucher7:39
xG 0.12–0.30 (28%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Larsson12:53
xG 0.45–0.23 (67%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Mozik11:16
xG 0.17–0.09 (65%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Moore – Severson8:32
xG 0.14–0.12 (54%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).