Tue, Apr 5, 2016·Verizon Center, Washington
New York Islanders 4, Washington Capitals 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 010 | 18 | 26 | 13 | 427 |
| WSH | 18 | 011 | 210 | 03 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:29WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: T.J. Oshie, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 13:43NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Thomas Hickey, Kyle Okposo · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 1:15WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Marcus Johansson, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 6:56WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: T.J. Oshie, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 8:40NYIKyle OkposoAssists: John Tavares, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
- P3 10:25NYIAnders LeeAssists: Nick Leddy, Ryan Strome · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–3
- OT 2:13NYIThomas HickeyGWGAssists: John Tavares, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:18NYIScott Mayfield: Interference2 min
- P1 11:18WSHMichael Latta: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:18WSHMichael Latta: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:18NYIScott Mayfield: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:00WSHTom Wilson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:14WSHMatt Niskanen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:14WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:14NYIEric Boulton: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:07NYIJosh Bailey: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Beagle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Tavares16:39
xG 0.85–0.39 (68%)attempts 22–18goals 2–0
- Boulton – Bernier – Cizikas7:19
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Martin – Lee – Strome10:10
xG 0.38–0.34 (52%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Kulemin – Bailey – Nelson11:28
xG 0.13–0.75 (15%)attempts 6–18goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Mayfield6:54
xG 0.66–0.39 (63%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Leddy – Pulock5:18
xG 0.25–0.11 (70%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Leddy9:38
xG 0.40–0.31 (56%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Johansson15:31
xG 0.49–0.20 (71%)attempts 14–10goals 3–0
- Williams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky12:54
xG 0.40–0.42 (49%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Chimera – Beagle – Wilson13:39
xG 0.38–0.74 (34%)attempts 18–19goals 0–1
- Richards – Winnik – Latta4:22
xG 0.00–0.44 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Schmidt15:28
xG 0.58–0.28 (67%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Orpik – Carlson3:11
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 6–2goals 1–1
- Niskanen – Alzner16:56
xG 0.37–0.55 (40%)attempts 17–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).