Tue, Apr 5, 2016·Centre Bell, Montreal
Florida Panthers 4, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 17 | 14 | 28 | 419 |
| MTL | 014 | 113 | 06 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:10FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 11:00MTLAlex GalchenyukPPAssists: Max Pacioretty, Brendan Gallagher · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 19:47FLANick BjugstadPPGWGAssists: Teddy Purcell, Jaromir Jagr · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 8:58FLAGreg McKeggAssists: Shawn Thornton, Aaron Ekblad · Backhand, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 18:31FLAJiri HudlerPPAssists: Teddy Purcell, Jakub Kindl · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:10FLAJakub Kindl: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:27MTLGreg Pateryn: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:36FLABrian Campbell: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:10FLASteven Kampfer: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:21FLAAaron Ekblad: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:27FLAAaron Ekblad: Holding2 min
- P2 19:16MTLBrendan Gallagher: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 1:50MTLDarren Dietz: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:08MTLJohn Scott: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:04FLANick Bjugstad: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:14MTLDaniel Carr: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Purcell – Grimaldi8:46
xG 0.25–0.10 (72%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – McKegg6:11
xG 0.25–0.28 (47%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Bjugstad9:16
xG 0.22–0.63 (26%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov8:53
xG 0.10–0.79 (11%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Kulikov – Petrovic2:23
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Kampfer – Kulikov10:32
xG 0.32–0.47 (41%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Campbell – Ekblad13:43
xG 0.40–0.58 (41%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Gallagher – Galchenyuk10:43
xG 0.78–0.26 (75%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Danault – Andrighetto9:34
xG 0.74–0.37 (67%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Plekanec – Eller – Carr9:19
xG 0.19–0.16 (56%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Scott – Byron7:45
xG 0.10–0.21 (33%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Pateryn11:36
xG 0.69–0.08 (90%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Dietz – Hanley11:21
xG 0.67–0.42 (62%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Emelin – Johnston11:39
xG 0.35–0.29 (55%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).