Tue, Apr 5, 2016·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 07 | 211 | 310 | 528 |
| OTT | 19 | 29 | 012 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:43OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Mike Hoffman, Mika Zibanejad · Slap, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 2:21OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Ben Harpur, Chris Wideman · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 3:33OTTZack SmithAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Fredrik Claesson · Snap, 0.02 xG0–3
- P2 7:47PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Nick Bonino, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–3
- P2 15:13PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Kris Letang · Backhand, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 4:19PITCarl HagelinAssists: Nick Bonino · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–3
- P3 14:03PITCarl HagelinGWGAssists: Nick Bonino · Backhand, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 19:53PITSidney CrosbyENAssists: Kris Letang, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.68 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:32PITBen Lovejoy: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:39OTTBuddy Robinson: Boarding2 min
- P2 10:35OTTBuddy Robinson: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:41PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:00PITOskar Sundqvist: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:28PITEric Fehr: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Bonino – Hagelin9:49
xG 0.52–0.19 (74%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Crosby – Bennett – Sheary3:19
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Kuhnhackl10:34
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Bennett – Sundqvist – Sheary4:56
xG 0.06–0.13 (33%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Cole – Schultz11:50
xG 0.27–0.31 (46%)attempts 8–10goals 1–2
- Lovejoy – Dumoulin13:21
xG 0.45–0.49 (48%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Daley – Letang18:42
xG 0.68–0.96 (41%)attempts 15–17goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Puempel – Lazar6:29
xG 0.58–0.12 (83%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Dzingel – Zibanejad10:42
xG 0.78–0.35 (69%)attempts 19–5goals 2–1
- Neil – Paul – Lazar3:48
xG 0.02–0.03 (46%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Chiasson – Pageau3:44
xG 0.15–0.25 (37%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Claesson16:15
xG 1.01–0.69 (59%)attempts 17–14goals 1–3
- Wideman – Harpur10:16
xG 0.42–0.16 (73%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Kostka – Ceci11:49
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).