Tue, Apr 5, 2016·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Los Angeles Kings 5, Calgary Flames 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 112 | 14 | 29 | 11 | 526 |
| CGY | 14 | 112 | 27 | 00 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:41CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Joe Colborne, Deryk Engelland · Backhand, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 9:53LAKMilan LucicAssists: Anze Kopitar, Jake Muzzin · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 0:14LAKMilan LucicAssists: Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 15:51CGYHunter ShinkarukAssists: Mark Giordano, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–2
- P3 0:33CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 1:05LAKAndy AndreoffUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 15:59CGYDeryk EngellandAssists: Micheal Ferland, Joe Colborne · Snap, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 19:24LAKKris VersteegAssists: Jamie McBain, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.30 xG4–4
- OT 0:40LAKJeff CarterGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:22LAKJeff Carter: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:36CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 2:21CGYDerek Grant: Interference2 min
- P2 11:35LAKJeff Carter: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:57LAKLuke Schenn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:10CGYMark Giordano: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:28LAKJake Muzzin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Lucic – Pearson9:52
xG 0.80–0.10 (89%)attempts 14–5goals 2–1
- Versteeg – Andreoff – Shore4:40
xG 0.16–0.04 (80%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Andreoff2:28
xG 0.12–0.03 (78%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Brown – King7:46
xG 0.13–0.11 (54%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – McNabb17:04
xG 0.95–0.17 (85%)attempts 20–11goals 1–1
- Muzzin – Doughty4:02
xG 0.23–0.06 (78%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- McBain – Gravel7:47
xG 0.30–0.20 (61%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Shinkaruk – Monahan10:02
xG 0.71–0.43 (62%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
- Stajan – Grant – Bollig6:19
xG 0.12–0.11 (54%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Ferland – Jooris – Bennett7:33
xG 0.10–0.15 (41%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Backlund – Colborne – Bouma7:03
xG 0.05–0.78 (6%)attempts 2–10goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Giordano14:43
xG 0.82–0.21 (80%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- Engelland – Brodie2:41
xG 0.18–0.04 (80%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Jokipakka – Nakladal4:00
xG 0.05–0.02 (73%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).