Tue, Apr 5, 2016·Honda Center, Anaheim
Winnipeg Jets 2, Anaheim Ducks 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 011 | 08 | 16 | 11 | 226 |
| ANA | 19 | 06 | 011 | 02 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:33ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Sami Vatanen · Wrist, 0.52 xG0–1
- P3 16:14WPGMarko DanoAssists: Jacob Trouba, Alexander Burmistrov · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- OT 3:07WPGBlake WheelerGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:16WPGMarko Dano: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:00WPGChris Thorburn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:08ANAHampus Lindholm: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:07ANAJamie McGinn: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:48WPGMark Scheifele: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:26WPGMark Scheifele: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:01ANANate Thompson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers16:31
xG 0.65–0.25 (72%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Stafford – Burmistrov – Dano9:56
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Armia – Copp – Petan7:26
xG 0.13–0.16 (44%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Lowry – Tanev9:04
xG 0.10–0.22 (31%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Chiarot15:09
xG 0.77–0.18 (81%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Stuart – Trouba15:41
xG 0.20–0.28 (41%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Postma – Melchiori10:49
xG 0.16–0.43 (27%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – McGinn10:39
xG 0.46–0.14 (77%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Santorelli – Stewart5:30
xG 0.11–0.03 (81%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Thompson – Wagner – Garbutt9:10
xG 0.17–0.12 (60%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Kesler – Stewart2:03
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stoner – Vatanen12:20
xG 0.23–0.25 (48%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Despres – Fowler13:52
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Manson – Lindholm15:05
xG 0.24–0.55 (30%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).