Wed, Apr 6, 2016·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Vancouver Canucks 2, Edmonton Oilers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 08 | 05 | 214 | 227 |
| EDM | 07 | 312 | 319 | 638 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:27EDMNail YakupovAssists: Mark Fayne · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 13:16EDMPatrick MaroonUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 17:26EDMConnor McDavidPPGWGAssists: Jordan Eberle, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–3
- P3 5:21VANMatt BartkowskiAssists: Alex Biega, Jared McCann · Snap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 9:08EDMPatrick MaroonAssists: Jordan Eberle, Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 9:26EDMTaylor HallAssists: Adam Pardy, Iiro Pakarinen · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–5
- P3 12:09VANBo HorvatAssists: Emerson Etem, Derek Dorsett · Snap, 0.14 xG2–5
- P3 18:03EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–6
Penalties (12)
- P1 7:52EDMConnor McDavid: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:05VANMarkus Granlund: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:27EDMMark Fayne: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:00VANDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:00EDMZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:04VANChris Tanev: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:50EDMNail Yakupov: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:21VANNikita Tryamkin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:02EDMMatt Hendricks: Holding2 min
- P3 16:51VANDan Hamhuis: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:49EDMAdam Pardy: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:49VANJared McCann: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Sedin – Sedin – Hansen9:20
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Dorsett – Etem – Horvat8:55
xG 0.67–0.65 (51%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Granlund – Virtanen – McCann7:23
xG 0.08–0.22 (27%)attempts 5–4goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Tryamkin8:39
xG 0.76–0.70 (52%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Hamhuis – Tanev9:41
xG 0.37–0.50 (43%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Biega – Bartkowski12:53
xG 0.08–0.59 (13%)attempts 6–15goals 1–2
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Eberle – McDavid10:12
xG 1.00–0.40 (72%)attempts 13–8goals 2–1
- Hall – Pakarinen – Nugent-Hopkins3:00
xG 0.20–0.15 (57%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Korpikoski – Yakupov – Draisaitl3:09
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Nugent-Hopkins – Yakupov4:58
xG 0.18–0.20 (48%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Reinhart2:20
xG 0.43–0.04 (92%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Pardy – Oesterle5:24
xG 0.45–0.19 (71%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Reinhart – Oesterle10:32
xG 0.41–0.37 (52%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).