Thu, Apr 7, 2016·TD Garden, Boston
Detroit Red Wings 2, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 08 | 15 | 12 | 215 |
| BOS | 211 | 112 | 211 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:25BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: John-Michael Liles, Colin Miller · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 2:44BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Torey Krug, Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 5:02BOSTorey KrugPPGWGAssists: Loui Eriksson, David Krejci · Slap, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 6:59DETAlexey MarchenkoAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P3 0:20BOSLee StempniakAssists: Torey Krug, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.16 xG1–4
- P3 0:45BOSLoui ErikssonAssists: David Krejci, Ryan Spooner · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–5
- P3 18:37DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Alexey Marchenko, Kyle Quincey · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:20BOSAdam McQuaid: Interference2 min
- P1 11:39DETDanny DeKeyser: Holding2 min
- P1 14:06BOSAdam McQuaid: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:37DETRiley Sheahan: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:37BOSMatt Beleskey: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:16DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 2:42BOSTorey Krug: Holding2 min
- P3 4:57DETHenrik Zetterberg: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Richards – Datsyuk – Helm8:49
xG 0.11–0.25 (30%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan6:58
xG 0.04–0.20 (18%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Jurco – Glendening – Athanasiou7:39
xG 0.11–0.43 (21%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin6:50
xG 0.07–0.52 (12%)attempts 4–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Marchenko2:30
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 1–0
- Ericsson – Marchenko3:19
xG 0.02–0.11 (18%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Marchenko – DeKeyser2:03
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Stempniak – Marchand9:25
xG 0.58–0.10 (85%)attempts 13–8goals 2–1
- Ferraro – Vatrano – Acciari8:55
xG 0.34–0.10 (78%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Talbot – Beleskey – Pastrnak10:39
xG 0.41–0.17 (71%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Eriksson – Krejci – Spooner9:54
xG 0.25–0.06 (82%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Miller12:29
xG 0.74–0.19 (80%)attempts 19–9goals 1–1
- McQuaid – Krug12:35
xG 0.48–0.07 (87%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- Chara – Miller14:38
xG 0.35–0.11 (76%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).