Thu, Apr 7, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
New York Islanders 4, New York Rangers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 07 | 39 | 17 | 423 |
| NYR | 012 | 016 | 19 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:28NYIShane PrinceAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Steve Bernier · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 18:38NYICasey CizikasGWGAssists: Shane Prince, Brock Nelson · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 19:45NYIFrans NielsenPPAssists: John Tavares, Kyle Okposo · Snap, 0.11 xG3–0
- P3 17:12NYRKevin KleinAssists: Derek Stepan, Keith Yandle · Slap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 19:28NYIJohn TavaresENAssists: Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.61 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:12NYRBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:47NYINikolay Kulemin: Interference2 min
- P2 7:54NYISteve Bernier: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:45NYRDylan McIlrath: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:55NYRKeith Yandle: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:43NYIJohn Tavares: Interference2 min
- P3 9:21NYICalvin de Haan: Interference2 min
- P3 14:27NYIJohnny Boychuk: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:27NYRRick Nash: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Prince – Strome2:36
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Bernier – Prince – Strome3:28
xG 0.05–0.03 (62%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Boulton – Bernier – Cizikas2:57
xG 0.04–0.04 (51%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Okposo – Tavares10:06
xG 0.37–0.54 (41%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – de Haan2:33
xG 0.31–0.13 (70%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Zidlicky – Hickey8:30
xG 0.27–0.30 (48%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- de Haan – Pulock12:05
xG 0.25–0.42 (38%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Zuccarello – Miller9:03
xG 0.81–0.28 (74%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Staal – Hayes – Fast8:44
xG 0.75–0.22 (77%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
- Moore – Glass – Stalberg5:54
xG 0.40–0.05 (90%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Nash – Stepan – Kreider8:23
xG 0.26–0.95 (21%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Skjei12:04
xG 0.87–0.46 (65%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Klein – Yandle10:50
xG 1.09–0.70 (61%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- Klein – Staal2:32
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).