Thu, Apr 7, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 211 | 15 | 08 | 12 | 426 |
| PHI | 011 | 115 | 218 | 00 | 344 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:28TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Martin Marincin, Colin Greening · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 15:03TORColin GreeningAssists: William Nylander, Tobias Lindberg · Snap, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 0:29PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Sean Couturier, Sam Gagner · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 9:17TORMichael GrabnerUnassisted · Snap, 0.27 xG3–1
- P3 8:33PHIAndrew MacDonaldAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Chris VandeVelde · Snap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 19:02PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Mark Streit, Shayne Gostisbehere · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–3
- OT 2:51TORJake GardinerPPGWGAssists: PA Parenteau, William Nylander · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:44TORSam Carrick: Interference2 min
- P2 1:26TORTobias Lindberg: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 12:04PHIJakub Voracek: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:34TORMartin Marincin: High sticking2 min
- OT 1:35PHIAndrew MacDonald: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Grabner – Gauthier8:15
xG 0.56–0.29 (66%)attempts 4–8goals 1–1
- Froese – Carrick – Kapanen6:59
xG 0.10–0.34 (23%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
- Laich – Parenteau – Bozak14:28
xG 0.54–0.92 (37%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
- Greening – Lindberg – Nylander12:07
xG 0.35–0.94 (27%)attempts 8–14goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- Brennan – Campbell9:30
xG 0.09–0.25 (26%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Corrado15:38
xG 0.35–1.15 (24%)attempts 6–25goals 1–1
- Marincin – Rielly17:12
xG 0.69–1.73 (29%)attempts 15–21goals 2–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVandeVelde – White – Bellemare8:30
xG 0.99–0.11 (90%)attempts 23–4goals 1–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Simmonds11:46
xG 1.43–0.86 (62%)attempts 19–13goals 0–2
- Read – Laughton – Raffl5:25
xG 0.33–0.05 (87%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Gagner – Schenn – Couturier9:34
xG 0.34–0.16 (68%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gudas13:16
xG 1.05–0.30 (78%)attempts 26–6goals 0–1
- Streit – Schultz13:14
xG 0.90–0.31 (74%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Gostisbehere13:58
xG 1.32–0.75 (64%)attempts 20–9goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).