Thu, Apr 7, 2016·Verizon Center, Washington
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Washington Capitals 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 17 | 29 | 016 | 13 | 435 |
| WSH | 08 | 111 | 29 | 02 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:44PITMatt CullenAssists: Tom Kuhnhackl · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 0:28PITMatt CullenSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 9:03PITConor ShearyAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Tom Sestito · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 17:19WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: John Carlson, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 10:05WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Matt Niskanen, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 13:26WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: John Carlson, Justin Williams · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–3
- OT 4:00PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Kris Letang · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:41PITIan Cole: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:02PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:27WSHTom Wilson: Boarding5 min
- P2 11:10PITIan Cole: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 13:27WSHJustin Williams: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:52PITTrevor Daley: Holding2 min
- P2 18:00PITKris Letang: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:00WSHAlex Ovechkin: Embellishment2 min
- P3 3:14WSHDaniel Winnik: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:49WSHMatt Niskanen: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Bonino – Hagelin9:45
xG 0.59–0.29 (67%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Sestito – Sundqvist – Sheary4:22
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Kuhnhackl8:10
xG 0.14–0.13 (53%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Kunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist10:35
xG 0.15–0.62 (19%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Dumoulin10:48
xG 0.47–0.21 (69%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Cole – Schultz8:22
xG 0.42–0.37 (53%)attempts 6–13goals 0–2
- Letang – Cole2:24
xG 0.02–0.06 (25%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Backstrom11:31
xG 0.36–0.12 (76%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Chimera – Richards – Johansson2:57
xG 0.27–0.05 (84%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Williams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky6:53
xG 0.22–0.23 (49%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Richards – Winnik – Beagle5:07
xG 0.11–0.20 (36%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner13:57
xG 0.51–0.29 (64%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Orpik – Carlson10:19
xG 0.41–0.42 (49%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Orpik – Orlov4:13
xG 0.08–0.13 (38%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).