Thu, Apr 7, 2016·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Montréal Canadiens 4, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 214 | 18 | 431 |
| CAR | 18 | 110 | 010 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:34CARRiley NashAssists: Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 19:50MTLDarren DietzAssists: Max Pacioretty, Brendan Gallagher · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 5:11CARNoah HanifinAssists: Jordan Staal, Joakim Nordstrom · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 13:12MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Andrei Markov · Snap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 16:51MTLDaniel CarrGWGAssists: Tomas Plekanec · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 15:59MTLLars EllerAssists: Darren Dietz, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–2
Penalties (1)
- P3 16:12MTLAndrei Markov: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Danault – Andrighetto13:40
xG 0.47–0.26 (64%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Gallagher – Galchenyuk13:04
xG 1.03–0.99 (51%)attempts 19–15goals 2–1
- Plekanec – Eller – Carr13:04
xG 1.01–0.98 (51%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
- Mitchell – Brown – Byron9:47
xG 0.07–0.05 (60%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDietz – Hanley14:00
xG 1.06–0.24 (82%)attempts 21–6goals 2–1
- Emelin – Johnston19:06
xG 0.95–1.37 (41%)attempts 16–19goals 1–1
- Markov – Pateryn18:55
xG 0.39–0.90 (30%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Nordstrom – Brown5:31
xG 0.88–0.25 (78%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- McClement – Gerbe – Malone6:28
xG 0.66–0.12 (84%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Nash – Skinner – Rask12:04
xG 0.40–0.55 (42%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Terry – Lindholm – Brown4:28
xG 0.06–0.26 (19%)attempts 1–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Murphy16:51
xG 1.24–0.74 (63%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Faulk – Slavin17:12
xG 1.03–1.20 (46%)attempts 13–19goals 0–2
- Pesce – Hanifin19:14
xG 0.25–0.70 (27%)attempts 12–21goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).