Thu, Apr 7, 2016·United Center, Chicago
St. Louis Blues 2, Chicago Blackhawks 1 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 07 | 012 | 110 | 16 | 235 |
| CHI | 09 | 17 | 06 | 03 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:40CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Patrick Kane, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 18:44STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- OT 3:37STLVladimir TarasenkoGWGAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 17:55STLDmitrij Jaskin: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:55CHIRichard Panik: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:24CHIViktor Svedberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:13CHIRichard Panik: Embellishment2 min
- P2 12:13STLVladimir Tarasenko: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:34STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:34CHIBrandon Mashinter: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:34STLScottie Upshall: Misconduct10 min
- P2 18:09STLPatrik Berglund: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:02STLJay Bouwmeester: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Teravainen won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Lehtera – Tarasenko11:38
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Stastny – Paajarvi6:04
xG 0.28–0.09 (76%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Berglund – Paajarvi – Jaskin3:14
xG 0.36–0.18 (67%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Berglund – Schwartz – Jaskin4:29
xG 0.05–0.03 (61%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Edmundson9:29
xG 0.46–0.16 (75%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Parayko2:55
xG 0.26–0.04 (87%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Parayko8:14
xG 0.35–0.12 (74%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Toews – Panik11:01
xG 0.29–0.20 (59%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Toews – Kane – Panarin2:06
xG 0.09–0.03 (78%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Bickell – Desjardins – Weise6:12
xG 0.07–0.16 (31%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Kane – Teravainen – Panarin13:04
xG 0.23–0.43 (35%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Rozsival – Hjalmarsson4:23
xG 0.10–0.09 (53%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Svedberg12:49
xG 0.44–0.49 (47%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – van Riemsdyk12:46
xG 0.23–0.30 (43%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).