Thu, Apr 7, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Colorado Avalanche 2, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 96% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 04 | 03 | 212 | 219 |
| DAL | 115 | 211 | 15 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:13DALJason DickinsonAssists: Valeri Nichushkin · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 3:43DALColton SceviourPPAssists: Patrick Sharp, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–2
- P2 8:05DALJordie BennPPGWGAssists: Ales Hemsky, Radek Faksa · Slap, 0.10 xG0–3
- P3 10:54COLFrancois BeaucheminAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, John Mitchell · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–3
- P3 16:54DALAntoine RousselENAssists: Ales Hemsky, Radek Faksa · Wrist, 0.65 xG1–4
- P3 19:00COLShawn MatthiasAssists: Jarome Iginla, John Mitchell · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:26COLTyson Barrie: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:27DALAles Hemsky: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:07COLErik Johnson: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P2 3:07COLErik Johnson: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 7:03COLMikhail Grigorenko: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:27DALPatrick Sharp: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 1:43DALJohn Klingberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:31COLNikita Zadorov: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:52DALStephen Johns: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Boedker – Duchene – Grigorenko10:22
xG 0.16–0.17 (50%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Iginla – Mitchell – Matthias7:33
xG 0.44–0.44 (50%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- McLeod – Skille – Agozzino7:14
xG 0.05–0.20 (20%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Landeskog10:41
xG 0.10–0.80 (11%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Beauchemin – Zadorov2:05
xG 0.04–0.02 (72%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Holden2:07
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Holden6:12
xG 0.18–0.20 (48%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Roussel – Faksa6:58
xG 0.72–0.09 (89%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Moen – Fiddler – McKenzie9:18
xG 0.44–0.12 (79%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Dickinson – Nichushkin7:57
xG 0.26–0.09 (73%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Sharp – Benn – Eakin10:32
xG 0.08–0.02 (77%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Benn11:09
xG 0.83–0.13 (87%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg10:03
xG 0.51–0.23 (69%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Oduya – Johns13:06
xG 0.50–0.22 (69%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 96% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).