Thu, Apr 7, 2016·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Winnipeg Jets 5, San Jose Sharks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 06 | 310 | 210 | 526 |
| SJS | 16 | 29 | 110 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:16SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Joe Thornton, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 9:03WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 11:42SJSJoe ThorntonPPAssists: Patrick Marleau, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 15:34SJSPaul MartinPPAssists: Joel Ward · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 17:59WPGAndrew CoppAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Nic Petan · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P2 19:01WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Mark Scheifele, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–3
- P3 7:03SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Melker Karlsson, Nick Spaling · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 12:02WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Nic Petan · Backhand, 0.38 xG4–4
- P3 19:50WPGDustin ByfuglienGWGAssists: Drew Stafford, Marko Dano · Slap, 0.20 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
- P2 1:42SJSJustin Braun: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:33SJSNick Spaling: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:05WPGDustin Byfuglien: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:44WPGMark Stuart: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:28SJSBrenden Dillon: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:45WPGMark Scheifele: Holding2 min
- P3 10:45SJSPaul Martin: Kneeing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:20WPGBrandon Tanev: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers13:04
xG 0.88–0.31 (74%)attempts 10–12goals 1–2
- Armia – Copp – Petan9:40
xG 0.36–0.03 (93%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Stafford – Burmistrov – Dano12:36
xG 0.33–0.23 (58%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Lowry – Tanev9:16
xG 0.33–0.37 (47%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Chiarot16:37
xG 1.32–0.36 (79%)attempts 16–13goals 3–2
- Postma – Melchiori10:27
xG 0.40–0.15 (73%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Stuart – Trouba20:13
xG 0.40–0.45 (47%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Spaling – Karlsson11:36
xG 0.37–0.29 (57%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Haley – Wingels – Tierney8:59
xG 0.22–0.35 (39%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Ward – Couture – Donskoi9:26
xG 0.04–0.25 (14%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Hertl13:52
xG 0.34–1.01 (25%)attempts 13–17goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Braun – DeMelo13:56
xG 0.46–0.56 (45%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Polak – Dillon15:51
xG 0.35–0.55 (39%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Martin – Burns13:22
xG 0.09–0.59 (13%)attempts 4–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).