Sat, Apr 9, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
Detroit Red Wings 2, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 08 | 116 | 19 | 233 |
| NYR | 17 | 07 | 26 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:24NYRDan BoyleAssists: Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 6:42DETRiley SheahanPPAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Mike Green · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 14:22NYRKevin HayesAssists: Dylan McIlrath, Oscar Lindberg · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 17:24NYROscar LindbergENGWGAssists: Jesper Fast, Kevin Klein · Wrist, 0.69 xG1–3
- P3 18:26DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Brad Richards, Henrik Zetterberg · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:06NYRMarc Staal: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:26DETHenrik Zetterberg: Holding2 min
- P2 4:54NYRRick Nash: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:25DETKyle Quincey: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:47NYRDan Boyle: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:40NYRMarc Staal: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Datsyuk – Helm9:04
xG 0.40–0.05 (89%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin5:36
xG 0.33–0.08 (80%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan7:41
xG 0.30–0.06 (83%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Larkin3:39
xG 0.15–0.02 (88%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Green2:59
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Marchenko11:14
xG 0.53–0.17 (75%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Ericsson – DeKeyser3:34
xG 0.51–0.17 (75%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Staal – Hayes – Fast6:58
xG 0.24–0.21 (54%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Lindberg – Hayes – Fast3:28
xG 0.04–0.01 (76%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Brassard – Lindberg – Miller8:36
xG 0.31–0.44 (42%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Nash – Stepan – Kreider8:01
xG 0.24–0.63 (27%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Staal – McIlrath13:45
xG 0.33–0.32 (51%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Boyle – Staal2:12
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Klein – Yandle8:58
xG 0.52–0.55 (48%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).