Sat, Apr 9, 2016·Pepsi Center, Denver
Anaheim Ducks 5, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 211 | 114 | 26 | 531 |
| COL | 011 | 29 | 112 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:44ANACam FowlerPPAssists: Chris Stewart, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 19:05ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Ryan Kesler, Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 9:37ANARyan GarbuttAssists: Corey Perry, Nick Ritchie · Snap, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 9:54COLNick HoldenAssists: Erik Johnson, Carl Soderberg · Backhand, 0.34 xG3–1
- P2 10:26COLJarome IginlaAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–2
- P3 11:20ANARyan GetzlafPPGWGAssists: Corey Perry, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 12:57ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Ryan Kesler, Andrew Cogliano · Slap, 0.05 xG5–2
- P3 18:43COLZach RedmondPPAssists: Mikhail Grigorenko, Andrew Agozzino · Slap, 0.07 xG5–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:49ANARyan Kesler: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:42COLAndreas Martinsen: Interference5 min · PPG
- P1 11:42ANAJosh Manson: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:42COLAndreas Martinsen: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 19:32ANARyan Garbutt: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:32ANARyan Garbutt: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 11:01ANAJakob Silfverberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:35COLTyson Barrie: Interference2 min
- P2 17:25ANAJakob Silfverberg: Holding2 min
- P3 10:30COLJohn Mitchell: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:39ANAHampus Lindholm: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg8:53
xG 0.43–0.29 (60%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
- Thompson – Wagner – Ritchie7:21
xG 0.26–0.17 (60%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- McGinn – Stewart – Sgarbossa6:27
xG 0.06–0.15 (29%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Garbutt8:10
xG 0.20–0.92 (18%)attempts 8–7goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm12:31
xG 0.51–0.19 (73%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Holzer – Theodore10:22
xG 0.09–0.32 (21%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Despres – Fowler13:20
xG 0.62–1.17 (35%)attempts 12–15goals 2–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – McLeod – Agozzino7:41
xG 0.30–0.03 (91%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Matthias7:16
xG 0.50–0.23 (68%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Iginla – Agozzino – Grigorenko2:49
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Boedker – Duchene – Landeskog8:46
xG 0.29–0.69 (29%)attempts 11–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Holden7:15
xG 0.68–0.23 (75%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Beauchemin – Barrie9:56
xG 0.66–0.53 (55%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Redmond – Zadorov8:42
xG 0.18–0.06 (75%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).