Sat, Apr 9, 2016·Centre Bell, Montreal
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Montréal Canadiens 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 09 | 04 | 210 | 223 |
| MTL | 211 | 210 | 18 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:11MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Brendan Gallagher · Backhand, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 16:27MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Lars Eller, Alexei Emelin · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 0:27MTLMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–3
- P2 3:44MTLAlex GalchenyukPPAssists: Max Pacioretty, Andrei Markov · Slap, 0.06 xG0–4
- P3 6:33TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 13:00TBLJonathan DrouinAssists: Matt Carle, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–4
- P3 19:54MTLMax PaciorettyENAssists: Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.71 xG2–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 12:28TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:53MTLGreg Pateryn: Boarding5 min
- P1 15:53TBLOndrej Palat: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:53MTLGreg Pateryn: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 19:00TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:39TBLValtteri Filppula: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:29MTLPaul Byron: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:29TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:58MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:20TBLValtteri Filppula: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:43MTLDaniel Carr: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:51TBLAlex Killorn: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:53TBLMike Blunden: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Galchenyuk won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Namestnikov – Marchessault3:16
xG 0.32–0.08 (80%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Filppula – Palat – Drouin5:05
xG 0.24–0.09 (72%)attempts 4–4goals 2–0
- Johnson – Palat – Marchessault3:20
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Brown – Paquette4:19
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Nesterov4:56
xG 0.13–0.01 (90%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Carle – Sustr8:57
xG 0.26–0.27 (50%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Garrison – Sustr3:33
xG 0.14–0.17 (45%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Danault – Andrighetto8:54
xG 0.54–0.17 (76%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Eller – Carr8:40
xG 0.37–0.28 (57%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Pacioretty – Gallagher – Galchenyuk10:50
xG 0.32–0.37 (46%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Mitchell – Byron – Flynn8:29
xG 0.05–0.11 (31%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Johnston3:45
xG 0.24–0.05 (83%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Emelin – Dietz3:51
xG 0.17–0.05 (79%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Emelin – Johnston8:50
xG 0.51–0.39 (57%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).