Sat, Apr 9, 2016·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Calgary Flames 2, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 05 | 06 | 214 | 225 |
| MIN | 013 | 118 | 05 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:00MINZac DalpeAssists: Ryan Carter, Christian Folin · Backhand, 0.02 xG0–1
- P3 13:35CGYBrandon BolligAssists: Drew Shore, Turner Elson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 14:06CGYPatrick SieloffGWGAssists: Mikael Backlund, Micheal Ferland · Backhand, 0.01 xG2–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 13:28CGYPatrick Sieloff: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:16CGYDougie Hamilton: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:06MINNino Niederreiter: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:06CGYMark Giordano: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:06CGYMikael Backlund: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:45MINRyan Carter: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:45CGYMicheal Ferland: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:35CGYDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:11MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:26CGYMatt Stajan: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:01MINZac Dalpe: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Gaudreau – Jooris – Bennett2:24
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokipakka – Hamilton8:02
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Giordano – Sieloff5:53
xG 0.23–0.09 (72%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Sieloff – Kylington2:59
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPorter – Jones – Granlund5:19
xG 0.15–0.06 (71%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Coyle7:27
xG 0.27–0.25 (52%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Carter – Dalpe – Fontaine5:24
xG 0.02–0.11 (17%)attempts 2–5goals 1–1
- Pominville – Haula – Niederreiter6:41
xG 0.02–0.32 (5%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Brodin – Folin8:24
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Suter – Spurgeon9:50
xG 0.19–0.17 (53%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Scandella – Dumba9:47
xG 0.16–0.43 (27%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).