Sat, Apr 9, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Washington Capitals 5, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 214 | 212 | 110 | 536 |
| STL | 16 | 04 | 010 | 120 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:15STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 4:04WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 6:49WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 5:21WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Tom Wilson, Brooks Orpik · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 10:56WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Dmitry Orlov · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 10:35WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie · Slap, 0.10 xG5–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:52WSHMike Weber: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 0:00WSHMike Richards: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:37STLPatrik Berglund: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:14STLRyan Reaves: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:38WSHJason Chimera: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Richards – Johansson8:11
xG 0.67–0.23 (74%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom11:02
xG 0.82–0.46 (64%)attempts 22–12goals 3–1
- Winnik – Beagle – Wilson2:29
xG 0.14–0.07 (67%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Williams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky10:36
xG 0.27–0.39 (41%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Carlson16:59
xG 1.22–0.47 (72%)attempts 26–14goals 3–0
- Weber – Orlov12:42
xG 0.72–0.55 (57%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Alzner17:12
xG 0.47–0.65 (42%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Lehtera – Tarasenko8:53
xG 0.61–0.30 (67%)attempts 12–4goals 1–1
- Berglund – Paajarvi – Fabbri3:41
xG 0.21–0.13 (63%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves8:35
xG 0.13–0.25 (35%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Stastny – Fabbri4:25
xG 0.09–0.21 (30%)attempts 2–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Edmundson5:40
xG 0.50–0.22 (70%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Parayko2:01
xG 0.18–0.24 (44%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Parayko6:37
xG 0.18–0.26 (41%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).