Sat, Apr 9, 2016·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Winnipeg Jets 4, Los Angeles Kings 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 07 | 213 | 18 | 03 | 1 | 431 |
| LAK | 213 | 19 | 06 | 01 | 0 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:18LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Jeff Carter, Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 13:29LAKTanner PearsonAssists: Milan Lucic, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P2 6:05LAKAndy AndreoffUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 17:06WPGAndrew CoppAssists: Nic Petan, Joel Armia · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–3
- P2 19:19WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Blake Wheeler, Alexander Burmistrov · Slap, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 3:21WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. LAK Anze Kopitar stopped
- 2. WPG Blake Wheeler stopped
- 3. LAK Jeff Carter stopped
- 4. WPG Mark Scheifele scored
- 5. LAK Tyler Toffoli stopped
Penalties (3)
- P1 13:51LAKAnze Kopitar: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:34LAKJake Muzzin: Hooking2 min
- OT 1:02LAKJake Muzzin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Copp – Petan8:24
xG 0.71–0.21 (77%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers16:13
xG 0.56–0.63 (47%)attempts 16–17goals 1–1
- Stafford – Burmistrov – Dano11:34
xG 0.25–0.45 (36%)attempts 4–11goals 0–2
- Thorburn – Lowry – Tanev11:44
xG 0.40–0.87 (32%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Trouba19:07
xG 1.03–0.52 (66%)attempts 21–12goals 1–0
- Postma – Melchiori12:16
xG 0.36–0.60 (37%)attempts 3–16goals 0–1
- Byfuglien – Chiarot21:41
xG 0.43–1.92 (18%)attempts 17–29goals 1–2
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Lucic – Pearson12:13
xG 1.15–0.30 (79%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Carter – Brown – Toffoli12:59
xG 0.96–0.56 (63%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Versteeg – Clifford – Andreoff6:29
xG 0.25–0.06 (81%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Lewis – King9:21
xG 0.46–0.42 (52%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Schenn19:36
xG 1.47–0.22 (87%)attempts 31–8goals 3–0
- Doughty – McNabb17:06
xG 1.23–0.98 (56%)attempts 17–20goals 0–2
- Scuderi – Doughty2:40
xG 0.12–0.23 (34%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).