Wed, Oct 12, 2016·United Center, Chicago
St. Louis Blues 5, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 09 | 215 | 310 | 534 |
| CHI | 16 | 13 | 010 | 219 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:38CHIRichard PanikPPAssists: Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–1
- P2 4:52STLKevin ShattenkirkPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Alexander Steen · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 13:57CHIRyan HartmanAssists: Tyler Motte, Marcus Kruger · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 19:28STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Paul Stastny, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 0:55STLPaul StastnyPPGWGAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–2
- P3 18:54STLVladimir TarasenkoENAssists: Paul Stastny, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.72 xG4–2
- P3 19:41STLScottie UpshallENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.63 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:31STLRobby Fabbri: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 18:39STLColton Parayko: Holding2 min
- P2 3:01CHITrevor van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:54CHIJonathan Toews: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:31CHIArtem Anisimov: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:28CHIDuncan Keith: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:31CHITrevor van Riemsdyk: Boarding2 min
- P3 6:22STLPatrik Berglund: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:52STLKyle Brodziak: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Lehtera – Tarasenko11:27
xG 0.69–0.27 (72%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves4:47
xG 0.53–0.17 (76%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Steen – Stastny – Fabbri8:52
xG 0.18–0.09 (68%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Berglund – Jaskin – Yakupov9:11
xG 0.05–0.15 (25%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Bortuzzo11:22
xG 0.59–0.28 (68%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Edmundson – Parayko11:34
xG 0.30–0.06 (84%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo16:35
xG 0.54–0.43 (56%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Kane – Panarin12:14
xG 0.35–0.22 (62%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Kruger – Motte – Hartman5:55
xG 0.17–0.09 (66%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Hossa – Toews – Panik8:57
xG 0.14–0.11 (56%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Hinostroza – Schmaltz4:21
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook2:42
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Campbell – Forsling11:10
xG 0.24–0.20 (55%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Seabrook – Kempny13:23
xG 0.35–0.54 (39%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).