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Ice Lab

Wed, Oct 12, 2016·Rogers Place, Edmonton

Calgary Flames 4, Edmonton Oilers 7

Away

Calgary Flames

4

Final

Home

Edmonton Oilers

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.

EDM winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY19220112441
EDM3102929728

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:10EDMPatrick MaroonAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
  2. P1 1:46CGYAlex ChiassonAssists: Matt Stajan, Lance Bouma · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–1
  3. P1 5:34EDMTyler PitlickAssists: Adam Larsson, Kris Russell · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
  4. P1 15:12EDMZack KassianAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Connor McDavid · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–3
  5. P2 8:26CGYTroy BrouwerSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG2–3
  6. P2 10:51CGYMichael FrolikSHAssists: Mikael Backlund, Mark Giordano · Backhand, 0.28 xG3–3
  7. P2 12:17EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Andrej Sekera, Kris Russell · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–4
  8. P2 14:33EDMConnor McDavidGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.31 xG3–5
  9. P3 9:00EDMJesse PuljujarviPPUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG3–6
  10. P3 11:29CGYDennis WidemanPPAssists: TJ Brodie, Mikael Backlund · Slap, 0.05 xG4–6
  11. P3 18:38EDMJordan EberleENAssists: Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.52 xG4–7
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 3:22CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Boarding2 min
  2. P1 15:20EDMMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 15:20CGYDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 0:21EDMPatrick Maroon: Boarding2 min
  5. P2 6:59CGYMark Giordano: Holding2 min
  6. P2 9:06CGYDougie Hamilton: Interference2 min
  7. P2 13:57CGYSam Bennett: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 13:57EDMBenoit Pouliot: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  9. P2 14:33CGYDennis Wideman: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
  10. P2 15:29CGYDougie Hamilton: Hooking2 min
  11. P2 17:45EDMAndrej Sekera: Hooking2 min
  12. P3 0:42CGYDennis Wideman: Interference2 min
  13. P3 7:49CGYSam Bennett: Tripping2 min · PPG
  14. P3 10:14EDMZack Kassian: Tripping2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
44% to win56% to win
← CGY attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against McDavid
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYEDM
41Shots on goal28
3.7Expected goals3.4
64Shot attempts52
38Faceoffs won25
3Power plays6
19Penalty minutes13
24Hits25
13Blocked shots10
12Giveaways12
5Takeaways8

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Calgary Flames

Forward lines

  1. bestStajan – Bouma – Chiasson2:54

    xG 0.39–0.01 (97%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0

  2. Brouwer – Bennett – Tkachuk7:07

    xG 0.42–0.21 (66%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0

  3. Stajan – Chiasson – Ferland3:54

    xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0

  4. Frolik – Backlund – Ferland3:52

    xG 0.09–0.30 (24%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestBrodie – Hamilton2:48

    xG 0.33–0.02 (94%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0

  2. Engelland – Brodie10:06

    xG 0.38–0.33 (54%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0

  3. Grossmann – Hamilton8:21

    xG 0.12–0.40 (23%)attempts 7–9goals 0–2

Edmonton Oilers

Forward lines

  1. bestLucic – Eberle – McDavid9:42

    xG 1.06–0.19 (85%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0

  2. Maroon – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi6:01

    xG 0.11–0.09 (57%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0

  3. Pouliot – Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins2:06

    xG 0.03–0.10 (25%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0

  4. Letestu – Pitlick – Slepyshev2:20

    xG 0.02–0.13 (13%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestSekera – Russell11:11

    xG 0.69–0.15 (82%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0

  2. Larsson – Klefbom11:56

    xG 0.65–0.23 (74%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0

  3. Larsson – Nurse2:49

    xG 0.02–0.09 (16%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 3.4 xGCGY 3.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 88/100 · #124 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.57 · 11 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +26 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.

EDM winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).