Wed, Oct 12, 2016·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Los Angeles Kings 1, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 17 | 07 | 08 | 122 |
| SJS | 115 | 07 | 19 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:22LAKTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 14:05SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 3:20SJSBrent BurnsGWGAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Logan Couture · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:33SJSLogan Couture: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 5:29LAKMatt Greene: Holding2 min
- P1 13:12LAKKyle Clifford: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 14:05SJSJoe Pavelski: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:05LAKJonathan Quick: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:49LAKJake Muzzin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestClifford – Nolan – Andreoff9:54
xG 0.42–0.36 (54%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Brown – Setoguchi – Kopitar14:03
xG 0.34–0.67 (34%)attempts 17–16goals 0–1
- Lewis – King – Shore11:28
xG 0.19–0.68 (22%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Carter – Purcell – Toffoli11:13
xG 0.31–1.17 (21%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Martinez – McNabb16:32
xG 0.63–0.67 (49%)attempts 20–14goals 0–0
- Greene – Forbort12:43
xG 0.24–0.70 (25%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty19:10
xG 0.49–1.42 (26%)attempts 20–28goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Boedker – Donskoi10:12
xG 0.92–0.36 (72%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Wingels – Nieto – Karlsson8:32
xG 0.27–0.05 (84%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Hertl12:21
xG 0.55–0.34 (62%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Marleau – Ward – Tierney12:44
xG 0.62–0.41 (60%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun15:02
xG 1.08–0.15 (88%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Dillon15:58
xG 0.69–0.33 (68%)attempts 21–12goals 0–0
- Martin – Burns15:54
xG 0.72–0.73 (50%)attempts 14–26goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).