Thu, Oct 13, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
New York Islanders 3, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 010 | 08 | 310 | 328 |
| NYR | 113 | 112 | 314 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:41NYRMichael GrabnerAssists: Brandon Pirri, Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.45 xG0–1
- P2 17:41NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Brady Skjei, Mika Zibanejad · Deflected, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 0:47NYINick LeddyAssists: Casey Cizikas, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 4:04NYICal ClutterbuckAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Casey Cizikas · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 9:45NYRChris KreiderAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Nick Holden · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 16:11NYRBrandon PirriPPGWGAssists: Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad · Snap, 0.40 xG2–4
- P3 17:37NYRJ.T. MillerENAssists: Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.54 xG2–5
- P3 18:25NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Josh Bailey, Anthony Beauvillier · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:58NYICalvin de Haan: Boarding2 min
- P1 14:05NYRChris Kreider: Interference2 min
- P1 19:25NYIAnthony Beauvillier: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:39NYRPavel Buchnevich: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:53NYRBrady Skjei: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:09NYIThomas Hickey: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:51NYIJohn Tavares: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 18:46NYIJohn Tavares: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Nelson – Beauvillier8:49
xG 0.51–0.16 (76%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Kulemin – Cizikas8:15
xG 0.46–0.47 (49%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Chimera – Ladd – Tavares11:48
xG 0.96–1.20 (45%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Lee – Prince – Strome9:24
xG 0.33–0.64 (34%)attempts 12–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Seidenberg – de Haan14:03
xG 0.70–0.92 (43%)attempts 12–18goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Leddy15:21
xG 0.69–0.92 (43%)attempts 21–11goals 1–3
- Boychuk – Hickey10:28
xG 0.37–0.73 (34%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich7:30
xG 0.73–0.31 (70%)attempts 11–10goals 1–2
- Grabner – Pirri – Fast5:23
xG 0.51–0.14 (78%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Stepan – Zuccarello – Vesey9:52
xG 0.53–0.54 (49%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Nash – Hayes – Miller10:24
xG 0.28–0.81 (26%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClendening – Skjei13:04
xG 0.65–0.21 (76%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh12:57
xG 0.65–0.69 (48%)attempts 14–18goals 0–1
- Staal – Holden15:27
xG 1.17–1.36 (46%)attempts 13–21goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).