Thu, Oct 13, 2016·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Washington Capitals 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 111 | 09 | 115 | 06 | 2 | 241 |
| PIT | 010 | 210 | 08 | 02 | 3 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:59WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 8:47PITPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 18:52PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Conor Sheary · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 6:13WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PIT Nick Bonino stopped
- 2. WSH T.J. Oshie scored
- 3. PIT Evgeni Malkin scored
- 4. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov stopped
- 5. PIT Kris Letang scored
- 6. WSH Nicklas Backstrom scored
- 7. PIT Phil Kessel scored
- 8. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:33PITTom Kuhnhackl: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:54PITTom Sestito: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:54WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:55PITJustin Schultz: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:58WSHAlex Ovechkin: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 19:56WSHJustin Williams: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:00PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bonino won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – Beagle – Wilson4:32
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Johansson – Burakovsky12:11
xG 0.93–0.78 (54%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Kuznetsov12:29
xG 0.44–0.30 (60%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Williams – Eller – Sanford12:04
xG 0.36–0.57 (39%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Schmidt12:35
xG 0.50–0.37 (58%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Alzner17:21
xG 0.52–0.63 (45%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Carlson – Orlov15:43
xG 0.79–0.90 (46%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestFehr – Sestito – Kuhnhackl2:37
xG 0.19–0.00 (99%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Wilson11:29
xG 0.78–0.64 (55%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Kessel – Bonino – Hagelin14:18
xG 0.40–0.43 (48%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Kuhnhackl2:22
xG 0.14–0.23 (37%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Maatta12:26
xG 1.08–0.76 (59%)attempts 14–15goals 0–2
- Cole – Schultz11:46
xG 0.43–0.26 (62%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin19:57
xG 0.48–0.89 (35%)attempts 13–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).