Thu, Oct 13, 2016·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Boston Bruins 6, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 011 | 316 | 310 | 637 |
| CBJ | 29 | 113 | 09 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:58CBJAlexander WennbergAssists: Seth Jones, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 17:25CBJCam AtkinsonPPAssists: Nick Foligno, Alexander Wennberg · Snap, 0.22 xG0–2
- P2 2:36BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.30 xG1–2
- P2 6:44CBJSeth JonesAssists: Brandon Saad, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 13:36BOSDavid BackesAssists: Zdeno Chara, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.22 xG2–3
- P2 17:12BOSDavid BackesAssists: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–3
- P3 9:54BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, David Backes · Snap, 0.37 xG4–3
- P3 15:25BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Brandon Carlo · Snap, 0.15 xG5–3
- P3 19:02BOSDavid PastrnakENAssists: David Krejci, Ryan Spooner · Snap, 0.72 xG6–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:43BOSDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:43CBJJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:08BOSAustin Czarnik: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:05CBJBoone Jenner: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:14CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:37BOSDanton Heinen: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:55BOSNoel Acciari: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Marchand – Pastrnak11:42
xG 2.04–1.10 (65%)attempts 22–17goals 5–0
- Beleskey – Hayes – Czarnik6:42
xG 0.22–0.11 (67%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Beleskey – Nash – Hayes3:06
xG 0.09–0.06 (62%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Moore – Nash – Acciari5:51
xG 0.20–0.23 (46%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Carlo13:53
xG 1.63–0.45 (78%)attempts 19–11goals 5–1
- O'Gara – Krug12:18
xG 0.50–0.21 (71%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Liles – Krug2:07
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner11:39
xG 1.27–0.72 (64%)attempts 19–11goals 0–2
- Foligno – Gagner – Saad8:24
xG 0.11–0.25 (31%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg9:23
xG 0.09–0.29 (24%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Calvert – Karlsson – Anderson7:46
xG 0.17–0.76 (18%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Murray13:44
xG 0.97–0.92 (52%)attempts 13–20goals 0–1
- Jones – Werenski15:53
xG 0.61–0.96 (39%)attempts 23–13goals 1–3
- Johnson – Nutivaara11:07
xG 0.07–0.64 (10%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).