Thu, Oct 13, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
New Jersey Devils 1, Florida Panthers 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 19 | 08 | 07 | 00 | 124 |
| FLA | 111 | 05 | 016 | 12 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:38FLAJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Alexander Petrovic · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 19:31NJDPA ParenteauAssists: Yohann Auvitu, Pavel Zacha · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
- OT 2:48FLAAleksander BarkovGWGAssists: Mike Matheson · Slap, 0.26 xG1–2
Penalties (15)
- P1 10:29FLAShane Harper: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:48NJDJohn Moore: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:48FLAShane Harper: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:48NJDJohn Moore: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:48FLAShane Harper: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:42NJDJacob Josefson: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:03FLAMark Pysyk: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:08NJDMiles Wood: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:51FLAJussi Jokinen: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:51FLAJussi Jokinen: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:51NJDDamon Severson: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:51NJDTravis Zajac: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:16NJDKyle Palmieri: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:16FLAAaron Ekblad: Interference2 min
- P3 15:58NJDPA Parenteau: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Fiddler – Wood – Speers6:02
xG 0.10–0.06 (61%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Henrique – Smith-Pelly – Hall10:42
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Josefson – Zacha4:20
xG 0.16–0.17 (49%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Parenteau – Fiddler – Wood2:29
xG 0.04–0.15 (20%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Greene – Lovejoy2:46
xG 0.12–0.08 (58%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Quincey – Auvitu12:48
xG 0.40–0.43 (48%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Greene – Severson12:54
xG 0.42–0.63 (40%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSceviour – McCann – Malgin7:30
xG 0.42–0.14 (74%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Jagr – Marchessault – Barkov11:18
xG 0.60–0.38 (61%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck9:41
xG 0.23–0.26 (47%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- MacKenzie – Harper – McKegg7:37
xG 0.04–0.17 (18%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetrovic – Pysyk9:29
xG 0.38–0.11 (78%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Demers – Matheson15:12
xG 0.63–0.44 (59%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Yandle – Ekblad19:13
xG 0.66–0.56 (54%)attempts 19–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).