Fri, Oct 14, 2016·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Edmonton Oilers 5, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 112 | 110 | 37 | 529 |
| CGY | 224 | 03 | 18 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:22CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Deryk Engelland · Backhand, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 7:45EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Jordan Eberle, Kris Russell · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 11:35CGYMichael FrolikAssists: Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 5:25EDMJordan EberlePPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.40 xG2–2
- P3 1:28EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Milan Lucic, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 6:47EDMMark LetestuSHGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 12:16CGYJyrki JokipakkaAssists: Kris Versteeg · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 18:40EDMLeon DraisaitlENAssists: Milan Lucic, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.72 xG5–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 12:02EDMBenoit Pouliot: Interference2 min
- P2 1:55CGYSam Bennett: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:43CGYMark Giordano: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:48EDMBenoit Pouliot: Interference2 min
- P2 7:57EDMBenoit Pouliot: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 15:22EDMPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:22CGYDeryk Engelland: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:55CGYDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:42CGYSean Monahan: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:02EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Interference2 min
- P3 8:22CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:22EDMConnor McDavid: Embellishment2 min
- P3 9:48EDMJordan Eberle: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Eberle – McDavid12:57
xG 0.95–0.37 (72%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Letestu – Lander – Pitlick2:31
xG 0.44–0.09 (83%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Maroon – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi4:59
xG 0.02–0.27 (7%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins6:55
xG 0.19–0.82 (19%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Larsson – Klefbom13:25
xG 0.74–0.76 (49%)attempts 13–18goals 1–1
- Sekera – Russell12:45
xG 0.45–0.69 (40%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
- Gryba – Nurse10:45
xG 0.19–0.44 (30%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestVersteeg – Gaudreau – Monahan7:26
xG 0.45–0.08 (84%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Brouwer – Bennett – Tkachuk6:03
xG 0.42–0.39 (52%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Bouma7:13
xG 0.19–0.21 (48%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
- Brouwer – Gaudreau – Monahan2:23
xG 0.05–0.10 (33%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokipakka – Hamilton10:22
xG 1.05–0.36 (75%)attempts 22–7goals 0–0
- Engelland – Giordano2:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Engelland – Wideman9:18
xG 0.54–0.55 (50%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).