Fri, Oct 14, 2016·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 04 | 421 | 05 | 430 |
| LAK | 010 | 19 | 16 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:55PHIBoyd GordonAssists: Nick Cousins, Brandon Manning · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 4:43PHISean CouturierAssists: Travis Konecny, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–0
- P2 12:04PHISean CouturierGWGAssists: Travis Konecny, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–0
- P2 18:03PHIMark StreitAssists: Ivan Provorov, Nick Cousins · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–0
- P2 18:52LAKDrew DoughtyAssists: Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.02 xG4–1
- P3 3:01LAKBrayden McNabbAssists: Alec Martinez, Dwight King · Slap, 0.02 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:53LAKAndy Andreoff: Boarding2 min
- P1 0:00PHIWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:08LAKJordan Nolan: Interference2 min
- P3 10:53PHIAndrew MacDonald: Holding2 min
- P3 19:00PHIDale Weise: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:00LAKJake Muzzin: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestWeise – Cousins – Bellemare8:00
xG 0.42–0.10 (81%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Gordon – VandeVelde – Read8:24
xG 0.25–0.06 (79%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Konecny10:46
xG 0.42–0.30 (58%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Giroux – Simmonds – Raffl12:25
xG 0.37–0.56 (40%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Gostisbehere13:38
xG 0.88–0.32 (73%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Schultz – Manning13:42
xG 0.42–0.18 (70%)attempts 10–10goals 2–1
- Streit – Provorov15:34
xG 0.92–0.84 (52%)attempts 15–17goals 1–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Brown – Setoguchi – Shore7:51
xG 0.04–0.07 (39%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Kopitar – King – Toffoli10:58
xG 0.87–0.90 (49%)attempts 15–10goals 2–1
- Clifford – Nolan – Andreoff6:08
xG 0.08–0.30 (21%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Carter – Lewis – Purcell9:24
xG 0.17–0.64 (21%)attempts 7–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – McNabb15:00
xG 0.94–0.41 (70%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Doughty20:00
xG 0.42–0.70 (38%)attempts 16–16goals 1–1
- Greene – Forbort10:39
xG 0.13–0.62 (17%)attempts 7–13goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).