Sat, Oct 15, 2016·Verizon Center, Washington
New York Islanders 1, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 19 | 08 | 05 | 122 |
| WSH | 18 | 112 | 08 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:58WSHDaniel WinnikAssists: John Carlson, Jay Beagle · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 13:49NYIRyan StromePPAssists: Brock Nelson, Johnny Boychuk · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 7:46WSHDaniel WinnikGWGAssists: Karl Alzner, Brooks Orpik · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:03NYIMathew Barzal: Slashing2 min
- P1 5:06NYIMathew Barzal: Interference2 min
- P1 13:08WSHKarl Alzner: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 4:53NYIJason Chimera: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:36WSHZachary Sanford: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:14NYIDennis Seidenberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:51NYIMathew Barzal: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Clutterbuck – Kulemin – Cizikas9:39
xG 0.17–0.12 (58%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Lee – Strome – Barzal7:05
xG 0.25–0.29 (46%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Bailey – Nelson – Prince8:08
xG 0.10–0.31 (25%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Chimera – Ladd – Tavares12:02
xG 0.56–0.78 (41%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Hickey11:20
xG 0.40–0.22 (64%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Seidenberg – de Haan17:25
xG 0.24–0.29 (45%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Leddy14:26
xG 0.45–1.01 (31%)attempts 9–19goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – Beagle – Wilson8:54
xG 0.63–0.18 (77%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Backstrom – Johansson – Burakovsky10:17
xG 0.63–0.43 (59%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Kuznetsov10:20
xG 0.25–0.35 (41%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Williams – Eller – Sanford10:09
xG 0.06–0.24 (20%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner14:05
xG 0.93–0.50 (65%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Carlson – Orlov11:53
xG 0.40–0.25 (62%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Orpik – Schmidt12:47
xG 0.08–0.15 (36%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).