Sat, Oct 15, 2016·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Winnipeg Jets 3, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 29 | 02 | 16 | 317 |
| MIN | 010 | 312 | 19 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:49WPGNikolaj EhlersUnassisted · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 19:57WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Mark Scheifele · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 7:25MINChris StewartAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.43 xG2–1
- P2 8:23MINMathew DumbaPPAssists: Chris Stewart, Mikko Koivu · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 15:00MINEric StaalAssists: Charlie Coyle, Zach Parise · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 14:08MINJonas BrodinGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 19:41WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:10MINMathew Dumba: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:59WPGChris Thorburn: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:43WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:57WPGKyle Connor: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:12MINChris Stewart: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:19WPGAdam Lowry: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:50MINCharlie Coyle: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:50WPGMark Scheifele: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:05MINChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:05WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:01MINZach Parise: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Laine11:02
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Lowry – Tanev3:34
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Burmistrov – Connor – Tanev2:00
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Stafford – Perreault – Connor5:02
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Byfuglien – Myers2:48
xG 0.02–0.03 (40%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Morrissey16:48
xG 0.31–0.37 (46%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Stuart – Postma6:52
xG 0.12–0.21 (36%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Stewart – Granlund10:11
xG 0.35–0.11 (77%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Staal – Parise – Coyle11:18
xG 0.46–0.32 (59%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Dalpe – Zucker – Pulkkinen6:13
xG 0.10–0.01 (91%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Pominville – Haula – Niederreiter8:50
xG 0.15–0.06 (71%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon14:42
xG 0.90–0.09 (91%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Brodin – Folin11:50
xG 0.54–0.21 (72%)attempts 18–7goals 2–1
- Scandella – Dumba13:05
xG 0.23–0.09 (73%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).