Sat, Oct 15, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
New York Rangers 2, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 18 | 112 | 015 | 235 |
| STL | 211 | 17 | 00 | 318 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:13STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 5:25NYRChris KreiderAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 17:32STLPaul StastnyAssists: Robby Fabbri, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–2
- P2 2:28STLAlex PietrangeloPPGWGAssists: Paul Stastny, Vladimir Tarasenko · Snap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 2:58NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Chris Kreider, Nick Holden · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:34NYRDan Girardi: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:11STLNail Yakupov: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:22NYRJ.T. Miller: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:27NYRJesper Fast: Holding2 min
- P2 12:51NYRRyan McDonagh: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:27NYRChris Kreider: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:40STLColton Parayko: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich11:05
xG 0.77–0.65 (54%)attempts 18–5goals 2–1
- Stepan – Zuccarello – Vesey12:13
xG 0.25–0.18 (57%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Nash – Hayes – Miller7:53
xG 0.38–0.32 (54%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Grabner – Pirri – Fast5:18
xG 0.00–0.05 (4%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Clendening6:35
xG 1.12–0.12 (90%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Holden – Skjei3:31
xG 0.07–0.03 (68%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Staal – McDonagh4:17
xG 0.07–0.04 (66%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Stastny – Fabbri7:59
xG 0.65–0.27 (70%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
- Perron – Lehtera – Tarasenko7:19
xG 0.35–0.15 (70%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves2:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Upshall – Stastny – Perron4:23
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson9:13
xG 0.11–0.17 (40%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Parayko12:44
xG 0.47–0.60 (44%)attempts 7–19goals 1–1
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo15:10
xG 0.68–1.01 (40%)attempts 11–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).