Sat, Oct 15, 2016·United Center, Chicago
Nashville Predators 3, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 116 | 112 | 18 | 336 |
| CHI | 38 | 08 | 211 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:36CHINick SchmaltzAssists: Tyler Motte · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 8:19CHIBrent SeabrookPPAssists: Duncan Keith, Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 10:19CHIRichard PanikAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson, Duncan Keith · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–3
- P1 18:31NSHColin WilsonAssists: James Neal · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–3
- P2 18:44NSHCraig SmithPPAssists: P.K. Subban, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 4:56CHIRichard PanikPPGWGAssists: Marian Hossa, Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–4
- P3 10:06NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–4
- P3 18:29CHIRichard PanikAssists: Patrick Kane, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:13NSHMike Ribeiro: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 14:39CHIJordin Tootoo: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:04NSHP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:38CHIArtem Anisimov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:57NSHRyan Johansen: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Neal – Wilson11:48
xG 0.83–0.23 (78%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Salomaki – Sissons4:11
xG 0.66–0.11 (86%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Arvidsson9:31
xG 0.27–0.15 (65%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Neal – Johansen – Forsberg2:35
xG 0.03–0.04 (40%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Weber9:38
xG 0.61–0.18 (77%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Subban – Josi18:21
xG 0.77–0.52 (60%)attempts 21–17goals 0–1
- Ellis – Ekholm19:31
xG 0.87–0.69 (56%)attempts 17–16goals 1–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – Kruger – Rasmussen9:46
xG 0.44–0.22 (67%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Toews – Panik – Hinostroza10:54
xG 0.39–0.56 (41%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Hossa – Motte – Schmaltz8:29
xG 0.19–0.67 (22%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin12:44
xG 0.22–0.75 (23%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson16:41
xG 0.82–0.58 (59%)attempts 19–17goals 1–0
- Keith – Seabrook2:16
xG 0.03–0.02 (69%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Kempny16:34
xG 0.40–0.66 (37%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).